DES MOINES — As a data journalism site, FiveThirtyEight sometimes gets pegged as anti-reporting — we’re supposedly uninterested in looking away from our spreadsheets long enough to talk to real people. That’s never been true, but it’s even less applicable now: Shoe-leather reporting has become an increasingly integral part of what we do.
We do think some questions are best answered with data — who’s going to win a presidential election, for example. Or whether a candidate has improved his or her image with voters. But other questions are best answered by seeing for yourself: Is a campaign well run? Is a candidate connecting with voters? The trouble comes when you use data to answer the latter or “vibrations” to answer the former.
In 2012, when FiveThirtyEight was still publishing at The New York Times, Nate Silver and I went to New Hampshire. The state’s Republican primary was a few days away, and we saw the candidates speak, and watched how they interacted with voters. And then we visited each candidate’s New Hampshire headquarters. What we found summed up the campaigns perfectly: Mitt Romney’s office was bustling and organized. Ron Paul’s was smaller but run with military precision. Newt Gingrich’s was lightly attended and lightly managed. And Rick Perry’s was sprawling and empty.
Throughout this presidential campaign, our reporters have been making calls and interviewing sources (in addition to fiddling with spreadsheets), but this week we’re again turning up the dial: A team of FiveThirtyEight-ers – Nate Silver, Clare Malone, Harry Enten, Allison McCann, Jody Avirgan, Hayley Munguia and myself — has descended on Iowa, which will hold the first contest of the presidential primaries on Feb. 1. We’ll be here all week, checking out the candidates in person, visiting campaign field offices and talking to potential voters.
We’ll be posting videos, photos, thoughts and impressions to this blog. Think of it as our travelogue: We’ll show you what’s happening on the ground in the Hawkeye State with a data-driven twist.
We’ll be posting regularly, so check back when you can. And let us know what you think, or ask us a question @FiveThirtyEight.
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