MANCHESTER, N.H. — Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s coverage of the five-hundred-and-thirty-eighth Republican debate [Editor’s note: actually just the eighth], which begins tonight at 8 p.m. on ABC News. Clare Malone and Harry Enten are on scene for the event, which means they’ll be watching the debate on television in a giant gymnasium with hundreds of other members of the press corps who are constantly checking one another’s Twitter feeds. The rest of us will be doing pretty much the same thing, except from the comfort of our New Hampshire hotel rooms or tax-deductible home offices.
All kidding aside, this is probably the most important debate of the election so far. With only three days to go until Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, strong or weak performances could shift the order of finish here, where voters often surprise us with last-minute reversals. Even polling leader Donald Trump is not totally safe — and remember that any fallout from tonight might not show up in time to fully register in the last round of polls we get before Tuesday.
This is also the last time you may be seeing or hearing from several of the candidates on stage. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Chris Christie and Ben Carson are all extremely vulnerable and might not be much longer for the race. Kasich and Christie have focused their efforts on New Hampshire for months, and if they can’t improve upon their current position in the polls here, there’s little reason to think they’ll have an impact in other states. Bush’s position isn’t much better, except that he and his super PAC would have enough money to indulge in whatever slim chances his campaign imagines it has. All three of Bush, Christie and Kasich figure to be going after Marco Rubio, who received a raft of endorsements after Iowa and could soon become the consensus choice of “party elites” with a strong performance in New Hampshire.
(see updates…)
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